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Чтение книги "The implementation of the economic cycle: freedom, trust, duty" (страница 10)

   1.3. The risks of realization international payments and the ways of their minimize

   The main risks that arise in international payments and money on their reductions are:
   Credit risk associated with the buyer's inability or unwillingness to pay. The most potential risk in international payments, as a violation of the court against the debtor's impulse, which violated the obligation in another country requires more time and resources, and success is less possible than in the case of local debt.
   The means on the reduction of this risk include:
   – the use of credit;
   – receipt of cash deposits;
   – to provide coverage of export credit.
   Currency risk is associated with a change in the exchange rate, which may adversely affect the position of the exporter and importer. The cost of national currency in the future payments in foreign currency depends on the exchange rate between two currencies, especially when the exchange rates influence market forces.
   The means on the reduction of this risk include:
   – the use of forward currency hedging;
   – the use of futures options market;
   – billing in its own currency or in foreign currency, which has enduring value, dollar, pound sterling, yen, and euro;
   – contract maintenance – price adjustment is based on the resulting exchange rate changes.
   Regional risk of causing political or economic events that occur in the importing country and that caused a permanent or temporary suspension of payments to the seller. Regional risk also includes the risk of lack of convertibility: the inability of the owner of the country's currency to convert it into a currency of another country due to restrictions imposed by the government.
   The means on the reduction of this risk include:
   – the use of confirmed letter of credit;
   – to provide coverage of export credit.
   Thus, to the general methods of minimizing costs and risks that arise in the implementation of international payments include:
   – the use of different strategies;
   – insurance;
   – select the method of financing.
   Consider reserving a currency in the foreign trade contract. Any foreign trade transaction involves a foreign exchange risk, the risk of currency losses due to changes in foreign currency in which payment is made, the national currency.
   Fluctuations in exchange rates lead either to obtain additional profit or loss if the transaction is not in the national currency. By lowering the rate of foreign currencies relative to the national, between the contract and payment exporters suffering losses. Conversely, the increase in foreign currency exchange rate during this period brings profit to the exporter.
   Give the opposite result of currency fluctuations importer: the depreciation of foreign currency brings him gain, since less of the national currency needed to purchase foreign currency to pay for the contract, and the appreciation would lead to losses as well as for payment of the contract he would need more currency to buy foreign.
   «The main theme of economic life can be indirectly measured in money»[100]. Price – this is the monetary expression of value of goods. The contract of sale of foreign trade – one of its essential conditions[101]. Therefore, when a contract benefit to the exporter to price in a stronger currency, the rate is increasing or at least does not decrease with respect to the local currency. For the importer, on the contrary, as the currency price is preferable to a weaker currency, the rate of which decreases towards the national currency.
   However, the dynamics of exchange rates is very difficult to predict. In addition, the global market, there are traditions according to which some prices are set in certain currencies. Thus, the precious metals, oil, cotton, sugar price in the contract is fixed at USD, on wood and wood products, wool, and some non-ferrous metals – in GBP. Therefore it is not always possible to choose the currency rates at their discretion, in addition, it is very difficult to predict the movement of any currency exchange rate.
   As a precautionary measure, you can use the simultaneous conclusion of export and import contracts in the same currency and with approximately the same maturity. In this case, the profits of the export contract and damages under the import cancel. But all gains and losses could be drawn only when the balance of exports and imports. In practice, the organization usually prevails or exports or imports. Then, to reduce risks is advisable to have both export and import contracts in different currencies, with opposite trends in exchange rate fluctuations. Thus, the considered methods of protection can be used as an auxiliary, along with others. According to internalization theory, should be preferred to direct investment when the costs of negotiation of the contract, keeping track of these terms and conditions as well as bringing in a contract with another company higher than the cost, which requires a direct capital investment in its own foreign the company[102].
   A more reliable way to protect against currency losses is a currency clause. Its essence lies in the fact that the currency in which payment is made under a contract linked to a more stable currency and the amount of payment shall be subject to exchange rate more stable currency. In this case the payment currency may coincide or may not coincide with the monetary cost. In the first case is called a direct exchange clause in the second – indirect
   International financial transactions can be cross currency, when the transaction is made in a currency different from the currency, which is a national of one party. A variety of transactions are cross currency is eurocurrency (euro currency) transactions made in foreign to both sides of the transaction currency[103].
   Suppose, in accordance with the terms of the contract price of the currency and payment currency is CAD. To «anchor» is selected USD. The amount of payment under the contract is 150 000 CAD.
   The contract is entered as follows: «If by the time the payment rate CAD against USD changed by more than 2%, respectively, and changes the payment amount». Suppose at the time of contract exchange rate is 1,5 CAD for 1 USD. Accordingly, the amount of the payment at that time equivalent to 100 000 USD (150 000: 1.5).
   At the time of payment exchange rate amounted to 1,6 CAD for 1 USD, that is, decreased rate of CAD. To sum payment in that currency at the time of payment was the equivalent of 100 000 USD, the exporter must obtain 160 000 CAD (100 000 × 1,6).
   If at the time of the payment rate will increase and CAD will be, for example 1,4 CAD for 1 USD, the amount of payment in this currency, equivalent to 100 000 USD, will be 140 000 CAD (100 000 × 1,4).
   In the above formulation of a reservation direct monetary amount of payment varies with any change in the ratio of exchange. Such a clause is called a duplex. But it can be one-sided, that is, the amount of payment will be recalculated only at low or only at higher rate CAD. In this case, the formulation of monetary clauses, the word «change» should be written, respectively, «drop» or «rise».
   Naturally, the exporter is beneficial in case of one-way reservation depreciation, and the importer is interested in a one-sided clause in case of appreciation of the currency.
   If the payment currency is unstable, then the amount of payment shall be subject to other, stronger currencies, which is chosen as the currency of the contract price.
   Let's use the «dependence» between the same two currencies as a direct reservation – CAD and USD. But with direct reservation CAD acts as a currency and prices, and as the currency of payment, and USD – Currency as a «binding», in dependence on changes in the course of which put the amount of payment in CAD. When indirect reservation USD is also used as currency «anchor» in dependence on the exchange rate which put the amount of payment in CAD. However, CAD is not the currency rates, exchange rates as currency used «anchor» – that is, USD.
   Indirect exchange clause may also be unilateral or bilateral. However, neither direct nor indirect reservation a full guarantee against loss is not given. The degree of assurance depends on the choice of currency «anchor» and a combination of circumstances – in fact, rightly predicted a trend in changing the course of the currency.
   The degree of assurance increases, if the currency «anchors» to take not one but multiple currencies, and more, the stronger the degree of assurance. This clause, when as a currency «anchor» is used multiple currencies are multicurrency.
   The question of whether or not to include in the contract currency clause shall be decided by the parties to the transaction, depending on specific conditions. If the payment currency is stable and the payment will be made through a short period from the date of the contract, this is not necessary. When installment payment on a long term should include a reservation as to predict the movement in exchange rates over a long period is impossible. And we need to be included if the payment currency is unstable even with a small gap between the time of payment and the term of the contract.
   As a safeguard against currency losses can be used and futures, or hedging. The meaning of derivative transactions is as follows. For example, the Japanese exporter expects payment in the amount of USD 100 thousand in June under a contract in January. Fearing the fall of the USD, the exporter in order to avoid losses when receiving payment from the bank enters into a deal to sell its 100 thousand USD exchange rate on the transaction day 82 JPY for 1 USD. In June, the bank should buy from him 100 thousand USD at the rate of 82 JPY for 1 USD, however decreased rate of USD. On the other hand, the exporter is obliged to sell the bank to 100 000 USD to 82 USD 1 = JPY for an increase in the USD JPY to any level before.
   The same scheme is valid and the importer, concluding in advance with the bank deal to buy 100 thousand USD for payment of the import contract in June, to avoid possible losses during the appreciation of USD.
   If the future payment to the exporter issued promissory note, bill, bill of exchange[104], the exporter can sell the bank received a bill. After receiving a bill for USD, exporter sells them to the bank and receives JPY. Bill in a delay in the payment of real money, when used in the calculations for the goods will inevitably occur or increase in value of the goods or the amount of bill accretion of interest and / or discounting[105].
   Thus, the futures as a form of insurance currency risk in foreign trade are the following conditions:
   – the course of the transaction is recorded at the time of its conclusion;
   – the currency is passed through a certain period after the transaction;
   – transfer of currency is the previously established price, which is the price at the time of the transaction.
   When exporting instead of an urgent transaction currency risk can be prevented by contract of the loan. Then, with a decrease in the currency of payment, in our example – USD, in relation to the national currency, in our example, JPY, exporters suffering losses, but has a incomes by buying the currency to pay for the loan.
   Importer rather than an urgent transaction may open a deposit in USD, if the dollar rises, it will suffer losses, but can cover their losses on income deposit account.
   When paying for goods, works and services importer may partially hedge themselves against currency losses maneuvering within the terms of payment. If the expected sharp rise in the exchange rate of payment, it is advantageous to make early payment. Conversely, if the expected sharp depreciation of the currency of payment, you should withhold payment. Of course, this should not be violated contract terms set by the calculations. This measure gives the result, especially when a sudden change in course. However, for large amounts of payment important result can be obtained by a smooth change of course. Thus, there is no universal way to protect against currency losses, so it is best to use the discussed measures to prevent losses in the combination.
   Consider a bank guarantee in foreign economic activity. Bank guarantee – this is a document under which the bank agrees to pay a limited amount of money to a nominated party under the conditions specified therein.
   The bank guarantee can be given either directly in favor of the counterparty to the foreign trade transaction, either in favor of the bank's counterparty. In the first case it will be a direct guarantee, such as importer's bank gives a guarantee of exporting firms, the importer buys goods documents of the collection, and the second – through bank guarantee, exporter – is implied.
   Russian banks may issue guarantees for the following types of export-import operations:
   – payment of guarantee – in the enforcement of payment obligations of the Russian importers (principals) to foreign exporters (beneficiary);
   – contract of guarantee (tender, refund or other payments, the proper execution of the contract) – to secure obligations of Russian exporters to foreign importers (the beneficiaries).
   In international trade, the buyer of goods is difficult to assess the business and financial capabilities of the supplier. He therefore rightly demands to ensure that the seller will be able to produce a proposed design. For this purpose, the contract agreed upon nomination of a bank guarantee to secure the performance. The use of a bank guarantee as an instrument of payment is limited to international trade, mainly in case of default guarantee calculations on «open account».
   Under the bank guarantee the bank's obligation to understand separated make performance in cash when the third party fails to make specific performance. The guarantee is an independent obligation. It does not depend on the relationship of principal or contract between the creditor and principal debtor. By issuing a guarantee, the bank agrees to pay on demand, if contained in the guarantee conditions are satisfied.
   There are the following major types of warranties.
   Warranty Offer, its purpose is to ensure the hardness of the offer issued by the company at public auction (which is presented together with an offer), and provides for the payment of a guaranteed amount: the revocation of an offer to the expiry, if the order after receiving it at the auction will not be accepted the offer submitted, or if the guarantee after receipt of bids will not be replaced by ordering a guarantee of performance.
   The amount of such guarantee, as a rule, is 1-5% of the offer. The expiration date – before signing a contract.
   Performance guarantee by a guarantee, the bank undertakes to pay the beneficiary on behalf of the seller guaranteed amount if the provider cannot perform or perform in accordance with the contract terms their contractual obligations.
   The guarantee amount is usually 10% of the contract.
   The warranty period – the entire amount to the full implementation of the contract, which often includes the warranty period under the contract, for example, guarantees the correct functioning of the machine or installation. Validity may be two years or more.
   Guarantee an advance payment terms in the large export contracts often provide for the payment the buyer advances to buy raw materials and manufacturing costs. Payment of such advance is linked with the buyer receiving the advance guarantee, providing for return of an advance in case of default by the seller obligations under the contract. The guarantee amount is the sum of the advance. In such a guarantee should be provided for its redemption from the end of the supply contract. Exposed to the receipt, it shall enter into force only after its receipt.
   Guarantee payment in case of execution. This guarantee provides calculations for the case of default on «open account».
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