книга Bayesian Statistics the Fun Way: Understanding Statistics and Probability with Star Wars, LEGO, and Rubber Ducks

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Bayesian Statistics the Fun Way: Understanding Statistics and Probability with Star Wars, LEGO, and Rubber Ducks

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Название: Bayesian Statistics the Fun Way: Understanding Statistics and Probability with Star Wars, LEGO, and Rubber Ducks
Автор: Will Kurt
Страниц: 256
Формат: PDF (true), EPUB
Размер: 14,1 MB
Качество: Отличное
Язык: Английский
Год издания: 2019


 Fun guide to learning Bayesian statistics and probability through unusual and illustrative examples. Probability and statistics are increasingly important in a huge range of professions. But many people use data in ways they don't even understand, meaning they aren't getting the most from it. Bayesian Statistics the Fun Way will change that. This book will give you a complete understanding of Bayesian statistics through simple explanations and un-boring examples. 


Find out the probability of UFOs landing in your garden, how likely Han Solo is to survive a flight through an asteroid shower, how to win an argument about conspiracy theories, and whether a burglary really was a burglary, to name a few examples.

By using these off-the-beaten-track examples, the author actually makes learning statistics fun. And you'll learn real skills, like how to:

- How to measure your own level of uncertainty in a conclusion or belief
- Calculate Bayes theorem and understand what it's useful for
- Find the posterior, likelihood, and prior to check the accuracy of your conclusions
- Calculate distributions to see the range of your data
- Compare hypotheses and draw reliable conclusions from them

Next time you find yourself with a sheaf of survey results and no idea what to do with them, turn to Bayesian Statistics the Fun Way to get the most value from your data.

Contents:

Introduction
PART I: INTRODUCTION TO PROBABILITY
Chapter 1: Bayesian Thinking and Everyday Reasoning
Chapter 2: Measuring Uncertainty
Chapter 3: The Logic of Uncertainty
Chapter 4: Creating a Binomial Probability Distribution
Chapter 5: The Beta Distribution
PART II: BAYESIAN PROBABILITY AND PRIOR PROBABILITIES
Chapter 6: Conditional Probability
Chapter 7: Bayes’ Theorem with LEGO
Chapter 8: The Prior, Likelihood, and Posterior of Bayes’ Theorem
Chapter 9: Bayesian Priors and Working with Probability Distributions
PART III: PARAMETER ESTIMATION
Chapter 10: Introduction to Averaging and Parameter Estimation
Chapter 11: Measuring the Spread of Our Data
Chapter 12: The Normal Distribution
Chapter 13: Tools of Parameter Estimation: The PDF, CDF, and Quantile Function
Chapter 14: Parameter Estimation with Prior Probabilities
PART IV: HYPOTHESIS TESTING: THE HEART OF STATISTICS
Chapter 15: From Parameter Estimation to Hypothesis Testing: Building a Bayesian A/B Test
Chapter 16: Introduction to the Bayes Factor and Posterior Odds: The Competition of Ideas
Chapter 17: Bayesian Reasoning in the Twilight Zone
Chapter 18: When Data Doesn’t Convince You
Chapter 19: From Hypothesis Testing to Parameter Estimation
Appendix A: A Quick Introduction to R
Appendix B: Enough Calculus to Get By
Index


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